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Abstract

Introduction: The numerical forecast of tropical cyclones in Cuba is performed through the Short Range Prediction System and Numeric Ocean-Atmosphere Forecasting System, but both systems allow the analysis of tropical cyclones in their computing domains. Objective: To develop and implement a model to calculate the potential intensity of tropical cyclones considering their thermoenergetic cycle as a generalized Carnot engine and a specific numerical forecasting system for monitoring tropical cyclones from their genesis. Methods: We modified the classical theory of the potential intensity of tropical cyclones and configured the atmospheric component of the Hurricane Weather Research Forecast model in a new system for its operational run in Cuba. Results: We developed and implemented the Hurricane Maximum Potential Intensity Model and the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast. Discussion: In the simulations performed with Hurricane Maximum Potential Intensity, it was shown that the observed values of minimum pressure and maximum winds were similar to the simulated values for the most intense hurricanes, and it was detected that the area in which they reached the maximum intensity coincided with the regions predicted by the model. The track errors of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast ranged from 41 km for the first 12 h to 356 km for the 120 h. In particular, the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast showed an ability to forecast the trajectory of intense hurricanes and the intensity of tropical cyclones from depression to category 3 hurricanes between 36 and 120 h. Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast is skillful for forecasting extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones in the first 24 h. Conclusions: The systems contribute to the operational forecast of tropical cyclone activity, the development of new research to improve our knowledge of the dynamic and thermodynamic factors that favor the formation and development of tropical cyclones, and its usage for academic purposes.

Keywords: tropical cyclones; numerical forecast; potential intensity; intensity and trajectory