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Abstract

In this research, we performed a climatology analysis of tropical cyclones (TCs) landfalling in Cuba between 1980 and 2019. To develop the study, the historical records of TCs from the HURDAT2 database of the National Hurricane Center of the United States were used. In the study period, the Cuban territory was affected by 27 landfalling events, of which 16 occurred in the western Cuba and 11 in the eastern Cuba. On average, TCs formed in the western Caribbean Sea are more likely to make landfall in western Cuba, while those originating between the Lesser Antilles Arc and the West African coast tend to cross the coastline in eastern Cuba. In both cases, the TC impact is common along the southern coast. The annual analysis revealed an increasing (decreasing) trend in the frequency of landfalling in the eastern (western) region, although it is not statistically significant. Moreover, in the monthly analysis, we found that October exhibits the highest frequency. The maximum wind speed probability density showed that the most intense TCs generally affect the coasts of the eastern region of Cuba. On average, the Cuban coast is frequently affected by tropical storms and category 4 hurricanes on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Finally, both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridional Mode modulate the landfalling frequency in Cuba.

Keywords: tropical cyclones; landfalling; climatology; Cuba