……

Abstract

A sensitivity study is performed with Lin, Morrison 2-moment, WSM5, and WSM6 microphysics schemes for the numerical forecast of the low-level wind shear (LLWS) derived from storms at “José Martí” International Airport using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. As case studies, we select four storms associated with synoptic patterns that cause dangerous conditions at this aerodrome. The simulations are made for several atmosphere low levels. The influence of obstacles of comparable height with the atmospheric low-levels was taken into account to obtain the wind fields with mass consistent correction. In this paper, the evaluation process of surface variables is focus on temperature, surface pressure, relative humidity, and precipitation. The schemes did not show bigger differences among themselves. From all of the variables, relative humidity exhibits the worst results. The best performance for precipitation forecast was obtained with WSM5 in rainy season (May-October) and Lin in dry season (November-April). For LLWS sensitivity, results indicate that each hydrometeor particle concentration predicted by tested microphysics has an influence on vertical wind profiles, particularly, for low-levels. WSM5 and Lin seems the best options for microphysics scheme, although that is not conclusive.

Keywords: microphysics, WRF-ARW, low-level wind shear, convective storm