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Summary

Projecting future tropical cyclone (TC) activity is challenging due to climate model limitations. In this study, we downscaled the bias-corrected CMIP6 dataset for the medium (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios by the end of the 21st century (2071–2100) using the Weather Research and Forecasting at 20 km horizontal resolution to investigate future changes in TC activity in the North Atlantic basin (NATL). The results reveal a statistically significant (p < 0.05) reduction in TC density in the tropical and central NATL and in the mean annual TC frequency. Although the average annual number of major hurricanes (category 3+) is projected to increase under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, non-statistically significant signals for a change in TC intensity were detected. Furthermore, despite the discrepancies with some previous studies regarding intensity projections, our findings on TC frequency are consistent with a projected trend toward El Niño-like conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.