Numerical Wind Forecast at Mesoscale and Short Term for José Martí International Airport in Havana

Published in Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, 2021

Recommended citation: Díaz-Zurita, A.; Góngora-González, C.M.; Lobaina-Laó, A.; Pérez-Alarcón, A.; Coll-Hidalgo, P. (2021). Numerical Wind Forecast at Mesoscale and Short Term for José Martí International Airport in Havana Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, ahead of print, doi:10.1590/0102-77863610007

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Abstract

At the “José Martí” International Airport in Havana (MUHA), the level of accuracy presented by wind direction forecasts is close to 70%, they do not meet the requirements established by the aeronautical regulations which effectiveness must be higher than 85%. Therefore, a numerical forecast of the wind field was implemented at mesoscale, in a short term, using the WRF-NMM and Consistent Mass models that are aimed to improve the forecast made by the Ogimet, a wind forecast numerical tool used in the MUHA. It was experimented with different interpolation methods; the best results were obtained on the natural neighbor with the correction of Consistent Mass model. A computational tool was developed which provided the numerical wind field forecasts for the MUHA corresponding to the 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC which have a greater ability than the Ogimet and with an effectivity of 91% for numerical forecast of the wind field.

Keywords: forecast; wind; mesoscale; consistent mass; WRF-NMM