Recommended citation: Pérez-Alarcón, A., Stojanovic, M., Sorí, R., Trigo, R. M., Nieto, R., Gimeno, L. (2026). Wetter tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin under global warming: Insights from a Lagrangian moisture tracking approach. APARC General Assembly 2026 . Pune, India, 12-15 October 2026. https://aparc2026.tropmet.res.in/poster-presentations/57

Rogert Sorí¹, Milica Stojanovic1 , Albenis Pérez-Alarcón1 , Jakob Ernst1 , Raquel Nieto1,2 , Luis Gimeno1

Abstact

Tropical cyclones (TCs) play a critical role in the global and regional hydrological cycles, while simultaneously ranking among the most destructive meteorological hazards in tropical regions. Although global warming is expected to amplify precipitation from North Atlantic (NATL) TCs, future changes in moisture source contributions fueling these projected extremes remain a critical knowledge gap. In this work, we applied a Lagrangian moisture-tracking approach utilising high-resolution FLEXPART-WRF modelling, forced by a bias-corrected, downscaled CMIP6 data under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 emission trajectories. Our findings indicate a basin-wide increase of 9–20% in 6-hourly moisture uptake, yielding a 1.8% to 12.5% rising in TC-related precipitation. Notably, the thermodynamic scaling of this precipitation exhibits a complex and non-linear response. While mid-century rainfall increases follow the theoretical Clausius–Clapeyron relationship, precipitation sensitivity to warming degrades by the end of the century. In addition, future rainfall amplification relies predominantly on moisture contributions from sources near the TC, whereas the support from distant moisture sources decreases. For landfalling systems in the southeastern United States, TC-related precipitation is exacerbated by intensifying localised moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the western NATL. Overall, these findings highlight a critical intensification of ocean-to-land moisture transport by TCs, emphasising a growing future threat of regional flooding.