Recommended citation: Fernández-Alvarez, J.C.; Pérez-Alarcón, A.; Eiras-Barca, J.; Ramos, A.; Nieto, R., Gimeno, L. (2022). Moisture sources projections under climate change for Atmospheric Rivers landfalling the Iberian Peninsula. International Atmospheric River Conference . Santiago de Chile, Chile. 10-14 October 2022.
In the field of moisture transport, Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are known as narrow corridors of water vapor, generally 2000 km or more in length. ARs account for more than 90% of total the meridional moisture transport and latent. Even though it has been demonstrate that most ARs are somehow beneficial, the most intense cases are associated with extreme precipitation events, floods, landslides, extensive property damage, and losses of life. In the context of climate change, it is projected that the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere will be increasing at a rate close to 7 % /K1 in the both in lower troposphere and in the column. Despite this, future changes in moisture sources which contribute to the cited moisture transported by ARs to higher latitudes are still not known. In order to analyze these changes, a set of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model forced with Community Earth System Model (CESM2) as well as the FLEXPART-WRF model forced with the WRF-ARW outputs are used in this work. The analyses were carried out mainly by determining the anomaly moisture uptake for the mid-century (MC, 2049-2053) and end-century (EC, 2096-2100) periods, considering the annual and seasonal changes. We report that the moisture uptake anomaly increased with maximum values, ~ 7-8 %/K, in winter for MC and EC. In addition, a latitudinal increase in the anomalous moisture uptake pattern is projected over the central Atlantic and a longitudinal expansion towards the Gulf of Mexico is observed.