Recommended citation: Stojanovic, M., Sorí, R., Pérez-Alarcón, A., Hassan, M., Amin-Ismail, F.R., Ezz-Eldeen,R., Nieto, R., Gimeno, L. (2025). Drought occurrence and severity in northern Mediterranean Africa: insights from 1980 to 2022. International Geographical Union Thematic Conference 2025. Cairo, Egypt. 12-19 April 2025.

Abstact

Drought is a natural phenomenon that particularly impacts the northern Mediterranean region of Africa, one of the most water-stressed regions of the world, with significant consequences on water resources, vegetation, agriculture, population displacement, and even human mortality. Due to population growth, unsustainable water management, rapid economic growth, ongoing conflicts, and droughts, water scarcity in the region is expected to worsen. Thus, in this study, we aim to investigate the occurrence of dry conditions in the North African region during the period 1980–2022. First, a cluster analysis was performed using monthly precipitation data from the high-resolution Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) dataset. This analysis permitted us to classify the northern Mediterranean region of Africa into three main zones based on the spatial distribution of precipitation, namely: Northern North Africa Cluster (NNAC), Central North Africa Cluster (CNAC), and Southern North Africa Cluster (SNAC). The mean precipitation for each cluster during the period 1980–2022 was 48.52 mm/month for NNAC, 25.41 mm/month for CNAC, and 5.51 mm/month for SNAC.

Further analyses were conducted using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescales for all clusters, focusing on key indicators to characterize drought duration and severity. The results indicate that the number of drought episodes did not vary significantly between clusters, even though precipitation amounts differed considerably among them. Additionally, the severity of drought episodes was identified for each cluster, highlighting those of March 2005 to December 2005 for NNAC, May 2020 to January 2021 for CNAC, and November 2000 to November 2001 for SNAC as the most severe. On average, drought episodes were also associated with negative accumulated anomalies in soil moisture, which memory extended afterwards. These findings support a greater understanding of the effects of precipitation deficits on surface volumetric water content and offer valuable insights into improving hydrological management strategies in the northern Mediterranean region of Africa.