Recommended citation: González-Cámara, L. T., Corredoira-Iglesias, M., Zaragoza-Díaz A., Eiras-Barca, J., Stojanovic, M., Pérez-Alarcón, A., Gimeno, L., Nieto, R. (2026). Tracing Moisture and Heat in a 2012 Mediterranean Compound Event: a Lagrangian Analysis. 8th MedCLIVAR Conference. Limassol, Cyprus, 21-35 September 2026.

Abstract

Compound events are characterized by the simultaneous or sequential occurrence of multiple climate extremes, such as droughts and heatwaves, which pose a severe impact on society, agriculture, and strain the resilience of energy grids. When analyzing the compound events that occurred in 2012, several large-scale cases are observed, with one standing out due to its extreme spatial extent across the region. This selected event occurred between June 20 and July 29, 2012, predominantly affecting Central Europe, the Balkan Peninsula, and parts of western Turkey. To decipher the underlying mechanisms of this episode, the methodology applies the kinematic Lagrangian approach, adapted here for warm extremes, allowing for the decomposition and quantification of the physical components that explain the energy balance associated with this event. Utilizing backward trajectories, this conceptual framework evaluates the contribution of thermal advection and diabatic processes to the temperature evolution of the air mass. Additionally, the LATTIN tool is used to perform advanced heat tracking and moisture tracking. In this configuration, LATTIN directly integrates the thermal anomaly tracking algorithm, enabling the isolation and analysis of the specific components of temperature anomalies along the pathways of the air parcels, precisely identifying the source regions and the thermodynamic dynamics involved. The integration of these approaches will provide a detailed understanding of the atmosphere surface coupling during the event. The results make it possible to discern whether the persistence and severity of the 2012 extreme were dominated by large-scale dynamic forcings or by local feedback processes, thereby contributing significantly to improving the characterization and predictability of compound events in the Mediterranean region