Recommended citation: Fernández-Alvarez, J.C.; Pérez-Alarcón, A.; Eiras-Barca, J.; Ramos, A.; Nieto, R.; Gimeno, L. (2022). Atmospheric Rivers moisture sources projections landfalling the Iberian Peninsula. XXXVIII Reunión Bienal de la Real Sociedad Española de Física . Murcia, 11-15 July 2022. https://www.um.es/fisica/bienal-2022/assets/content/AS6.pdf
In the field of moisture transport, Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are known as narrow corridors of water vapor, generally 2000 km or more in length. These account for more than 90% of the meridional moisture transport and latent heat associated with storm tracks in the extratropical atmosphere. The ARs are associated with extreme precipitation events, floods, landslides, extensive property damage, and losses of life. In the context of climate change, it is projected that the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases about 7 %/K at lower troposphere and for the column integrated moisture, however the future changes in moisture sources contribute to moisture transported by ARs to higher latitudes by the endcentury are not known. To determine these changes simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model forced with Community Earth System Model (CESM2) and the FLEXPART-WRF model forced with the WRF-ARW outputs are used. The analysis was carried out mainly by determining the anomaly moisture uptake for the mid-century (MC, 2049-2053) and end-century (EC, 2096-2100) periods, considering the annual and seasonal changes of the variable. It was obtained that the moisture uptake anomaly increased with maximum values, ~ 7-8 %/K , in winter for MC and EC. In addition, a latitudinal increase in the anomalous moisture uptake pattern is projected over the central Atlantic and a longitudinal expansion towards the Gulf of Mexico.