Moisture Source Contributions To North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Under Future Warming Scenarios
Date:
Recommended citation: Pérez-Alarcón, A., Stojanovic, M., Sorí, R., Trigo, R.M.,Nieto, R., Gimeno, L. (2026). Moisture Source Contributions To North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Under Future Warming Scenarios. XL Reunión Bienal de la Real Sociedad Española de Física . Sevilla, 20-24 July 2026, pp284. https://bienalfisicasevilla2026.es/static/upload/ow222/events/ev784/Site/files/Libro_de_Abstracts_Bienal_2026-05.pdf
#Abstract
While intensification of North Atlantic (NATL) tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall is projected under future climate scenarios, the underlying changes in moisture source contributions have not been fully examined. Using high-resolution FLEXPART-WRF simulations driven by a downscaled, bias-corrected CMIP6 dataset, we quantified regional and basin-wide future changes in moisture supply for TC-related precipitation under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios throughout a Lagrangian approach. Our analysis reveals that 6-hourly moisture uptake is projected to increase by 9–20% across the basin, driving a corresponding intensification in storm-related precipitation of 1.8% to 12.5%. The relationship between warming and TC rainfall appears complex and non-linear; specifically, although mid-century follows the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling rate, the sensitivity of precipitation to warming decreases significantly toward the end of the century. Local moisture supplies near TCs are identified as the primary driver for this intensification, whereas the relative importance of remote moisture origins declines. Additionally, localised rising in moisture transport from the western NATL, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico substantially supports increases in rainfall totals for landfalling TCs in the southeastern United States. These results emphasise the role of TCs in moisture transport from the ocean to land as the climate warms, with critical consequences for regional flood vulnerability.