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Abstract

Heavy rainfall events, typically associated with tropical cyclones (TCs), provoke intense flooding, consequently causing severe losses to life and property. Therefore, the amount and distribution of rain associated with TCs must be forecasted precisely within a reasonable time to guarantee the protection of lives and goods. In this study, the skill of the Numerical Tool for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) for determining rainfall pattern, average rainfall, rainfall volume, and extreme amounts of rain observed during TCs is evaluated against Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data. A sample comprising nine systems formed in the North Atlantic basin from 2016 to 2018 is used, where the analysis begins 24 h before landfall. Several statistical indices characterising the abilities of the NTHF and climatology and persistence model for rainfalls (R-CLIPER) for forecasting rain as measured by the TRMM are calculated at 24, 48, and 72 h forecasts for each TC and averaged. The model under consideration presents better forecasting skills than the R-CLIPER for all the attributes evaluated and demonstrates similar performances compared with models reported in the literature. The proposed model predicts the average rainfall well and presents a good description of the rain pattern. However, its forecast of extreme rain is only applicable for 24 h.

Keywords: tropical cyclones, NTHF, rain forecast, statistical validation