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Abstract

Tropical easterly waves (TEWs) are critical drivers of the tropical North Atlantic hydroclimate, yet their future behavior remains uncertain. Using a high-resolution, dynamically downscaled, bias-corrected CMIP6 data set and a Lagrangian moisture tracking approach, we provide the first comprehensive, basin-wide projections of future changes in moisture sources for TEW-related precipitation. While our analysis finds non-significant changes in annual TEW frequency, it reveals a distinct east-west dipole, with drying trends in the eastern Atlantic and robust wetting in the west. However, by isolating wet waves, we reveal a statistically significant increase in basin-wide moisture uptake and precipitation. This trend, most pronounced by the end of the century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, reaches scaling rates ∼8.5%/°C and ∼4.0%/°C, respectively. These findings demonstrate that future wet TEWs will become substantially wetter, indicating a shift toward more intense precipitation events, particularly in the western tropical Atlantic, including the Caribbean region.